In his letter Mark Medinnus invites us to check his facts. On Oct. 20, CDC reports that up to Oct. 18, “VAERS received 8,878 reports of death … among people who received (italics added) a COVID-19 vaccine.”

That’s different than saying 8,878 people were killed by the vaccine.

(14) comments

Truth First

And yet, the vaccine didn't prevent these COVID deaths, was the man's point. Simply put: we're being lied to. Open thine eyes.

Mark Medinnus

Hi! I posted this elsewhere, but it fits here.

In his online comment to my recent letter to the editor, Trinity Bob was concerned with my use of the VAERS vaccine-related death count of 7,437. I would like to respond to his concern by sharing the research that supports my use of this number.

Bradford Hill’s Criteria of causation has been used as a tool in public health research for decades. Of his nine criteria, I considered for my research the fourth alone, Temporality. This criterion says that for any pair of events the cause must precede the effect. Because I oppose Governor Newsom’s school vaccine mandate, the cause here becomes the therapeutic intervention V for vaccination, the effect the outcome D for death. Therefore, for these two events, V must precede D. While satisfying the criterion of Temporality is necessary in this way, it is insufficient to infer causality between them. For example, consider a patient who passes away six months after being vaccinated. Is this causal? I would say unlikely, because a confounding variable like a Cardiovascular Event could easily have been the proximate cause of their death. Nevertheless, a causal inference between them is strengthened as the outcome of death follows closely the therapeutic intervention in time.

In a recent safety update on the topic of Covid vaccination in teenagers, for example, Tom Shimabukuro, who sits on the CDC Covid-19 Vaccine Task Force, used a risk window of 7 and 21 days post-vaccination to gather data on the incidence of possible vaccine-induced teen myocarditis. While he used 7 and 21 days in his study, I used only 3 days for my letter. Of the 7,437 VAERS vaccine-related deaths as of October 1, 2021, 786 or about 10% fell on the very day of vaccination. 939 more followed on the second day, 395 on the third. In other words, 2,120 or somewhat over 25% of all vaccine-related deaths occurred within the first 72 hours after vaccination. Despite the CDC’s cautionary language that Trinity Bob cited in his online comment, this is strong circumferential evidence that supports my assumption that vaccination was indeed the proximate cause of death in these cases. But I would say more. Following the Precautionary Principle, I would say that the burden falls on the CDC to investigate this circumstantial evidence to prove otherwise. Their path would be steep.

VAERS underreporting is well-known. This underreporting involves all adverse events, including the subset of serious adverse events like anaphylaxis or death. In the 2010 Harvard Pilgrim Study, for example, Ross Lazarus the principal investigator observed, “Fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported.” His 1% figure implies a URF (Under-Reporting Factor) of 100 times. That is, to capture the true number of adverse events, each reported event must be multiplied by 100. I have seen more current URF’s ranging from 4-120 times. In the research for my letter, however, I used the conservative number 4. As I mentioned above, somewhat over 25% of the reported vaccine-related deaths fell within a 72-hour post-vaccination window. Multiplying a URF of 4 times to this 25% figure brings the vaccine-related death count back to roughly the original number of 7,437 that I used in my calculations.

As readers may recall, I used this 7,437 number in calculating the national Covid vaccine-related death rate of one death per 52,946 doses given. Thereafter, I assumed that all 9,026,750 California children ages 0-17 would receive two doses of Covid vaccine, bringing the total doses administered to 18,053,500. I then divided this number by 52,946. In doing so, 341 was the number of vaccine-related childhood deaths I calculated that could result from implementing Governor Newsom’s Vaccine Action Plan. In my letter I failed to add a margin of error. I will do so here.

For this margin of error, I will trim the 9,026,750 child population number in two ways. First, because Governor Newsom’s Vaccine Action Plan excludes from its primary vaccination series infants 0-6 months of age, I will assume an exclusion count of 600,000, which drops the child population to 8,426,750. Second, of this remaining 8,426,750, I will further assume that 25% have been fully vaccinated already. Doing so trims the final child population number to 6,320,063. If everyone in this final number receives two dose of vaccine, then the final dose count is 12,640,126. Lastly, using this final dose count to recalculate the childhood vaccine-related death count yields 12,640,126 divided by 52,946 or 239 child deaths. Even with my margin of error, this number still compares unfavorably to the 37 Covid-related death total for all California children ages 0-17 cited by the California Department of Public Health as of October 1, 2021.

Please consider, our children are in the morning of their lives. Each is precious. For their sake, I believe that we should always err on the side of caution, especially, as here, in the absence of long-term safety data for the mRNA vaccines. I am grateful to Trinity Bob for expressing his concern and, especially, for sharing his kind words. Thank you, T Bob! This is what community is all about. Still, despite his objection, I believe that my use of the VAERS death count – what he calls my ‘initial premise’ – is more than justified by the research I have shared in this letter and is in keeping with the spirit of primum non nocere, first do no harm.

I offer this reflection in closing. Throughout my career as a dental professional, I have reviewed hundreds of health studies, opinions, and reports. During this time, I have never encountered a public health proposal – much less a mandate – that would intervene therapeutically in a 0-17 age cohort for a disease whose annual survival rate for this same group is 99.9997%. To me, Governor Newsom’s mandate is unprecedented. As such, I oppose his school vaccine mandate. Thank you so much

areyouorhaveyoueverbeenacommie

Mr. Medinnus, chicken pox in children has a survival rate of 99.99999%, ( 1 death per 100,000). My math shows it has a better survival rate than Covid 19, yet the vaccine is mandated.

Trinity Bob

Dear Dr. Medinnus,

Thank you for offering your additional thoughts on the risks associated with covid vaccination, particularly among children. I share your concern for the young people in our state, in our country, and throughout the world. In them lies our hope for a better future.

If I correctly understand your methods and math, and if we assume, as you do, that 2,106,688 California children have already been vaccinated and that the death rate from the covid vaccine is 1 per 52,946 doses, then we should have recorded approximately 40 deaths among these vaxxed children if they received just one dose, and at two doses per child we should have recorded 80 deaths among only the vaccinated children, yet, according to your citation from the California Department of Public Health, there have been only 37 (but ANY is too many) covid-related deaths recorded among ALL California children, whether vaxxed or not and whether or not a risk window of four days or 21 days is used.

Regarding the 1% figure representing the “reported” deaths vs. the unreported deaths, first please note that the study referenced is now 11 years old. I would also point you to this article (https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/underreporting-and-post-vaccine-deaths-in-vaccine-adverse-event-reporting-system-vaers-explained-14fe22b2a65f), which provides explanation about underreporting in various categories as well as this interesting summary: “In fact, the CDC expected 11,440 deaths as early as January 2021, given that about 1.3 million doses of vaccines were administered to patients in long-term care facilities. But only 129 post-vaccine deaths were reported to VAERS at that time, which is 88.7-fold (8870%) lower than expected. … (Although underreporting is expected, it would not be at an extreme rate, as discussed in the above section, especially when it comes to death.)”

It seems one can only conclude that the covid vaccine death rate risk you’ve calculated overstates observed real-world covid-vaccine-related deaths, perhaps by a wide margin.

Truth First

This so-called "vaccine" is less than a year old. Like the Fauci Virus, it too is "novel", meaning untested by time. Only boneheads dare to compare it to age old vaccines that are tried-and-true, the ones we've all been taking since childhood. It does their credibility no good whatsoever for the cultists to cite the Polio Vaccine and other old timers as being comparable. Of course, they're not. Double-vaxxed people are sickened and dying all the time these days. Or haven't y'all been paying attention?. That's a red flag to all but the dumbest among us. Therefore, mandates are full on evil. Period.

Grow up, all.

Gina

The polio vaccine was tested for a year before widely distributed. Imagine if people were as politically charged about it as this. You seem to care an awful lot about other people and their decisions as well as Our yourself as a complete moron. Sucks for you buddy

Truth First

Sucks even more for the double-vaxxed who are dying left and right.

Pay attention to all the news, not just the lamestream, and you'll know this vax is deadlier than is being reported. The old vaccines were never mandated, and certainly not in their first year of existence like this one. Red flag.

The politicians are the ones enforcing this, not the doctors, who are quitting/being fired in droves for wisely opposing the mandates. You choose to get the pricks, it's your funeral maybe. Don't make me go to the grave cuz you gullibly trust anyone in authority. The supposed authorities are the ones who've been lying to you. Morons.

Trinity Bob

You spew a lot of supposed "facts," TF, but you offer no supporting data or links. That actually makes YOU look like the moron--someone who believes nonsense without any evidence to back it up.

Some people choose to get a prick, but some people decide to BE a prick.

Show us, please, your reliable information source that shows double-vaxxed "dying left and right" and compare that percentage with those who are dying left and right who have not been vaccinated. We're ALL eager for you to graciously enlighten us.

Truth First

Furthermore, I notice nobody has bothered to actually check Mr. Medinnus' facts, as he openly invited all to do. Typical. If they had, they'd see he's right on the money with his skepticism.

His point is that mandates are wrong, particularly in this instance. So far, nobody has even bothered to argue this point, only puking forth the same pro-vax talking points the pseudo-scientists have been feeding us all along. Such lemmings.

So...does that mean y'all actually like our government dictating your health treatments to you? Cuz if that's the case, then that only makes you look like children. Or citizens of Communist China. Either way, it's not a good look for you. (Special note to all self-proclaimed “libertarians” who are obediently going along with this: now you need to STFU!)

China showed scary footage of people collapsing and supposedly dying on the streets in the early days of the Fauci Virus. Remember that, Gina? No one here bothered to ask, why did this happen only in China? The histrionic display looked shady right from the beginning to those of us who still possess critical thinking skills. From there it's only gotten more and more BS-laden, the narrative. Often, to the point of absurdity. Nearly two years into this and we keep right on swallowing the disinformation sandwich whole, just like the regime expects to do.

The sickness count and the death toll worldwide have been greatly exaggerated (and partly misconstrued), while the deaths from the “vaccines” are vastly underreported, by all the usual news outlets (Colin Powell's last words: “But...I was double vaxxed!!?”). Don't take my word for it, Stephanie; the facts are out there waiting for your discovery, from a variety of legit news services. You just gotta try changing the channel once in a while.

Here's a guideline: For the most reliable information on this and other current events, from now on, try following all the news sources that did NOT cover the Russia Collusion bull***t with orgasmic glee. That should put you on the right track.

Trinity Bob

“Furthermore, I notice nobody has bothered to actually check Mr. Medinnus’ facts, as he openly invited all to do. Typical. If they had, they’d see he’s right on the money with his skepticism.”

You don’t bother to read anybody’s actual posts or check supplied links, do you, TF.

To set the record straight, Colin Powell, while he was double vaxxed, died from multiple myeloma, a cancer that directly affects the body’s ability to fight infections. You also deliberately claim to know his final last words. Were you there, or are you just quoting from some BS-spreading blogger you came across? FYI, whoever wrote it, they weren’t there either.

I’d say shame on you for lying about this and everything else, but you seem to have no shame.

Pretty much whatever it is you say, TF, the real truth is just the opposite. You just make up stuff. Your mind must be a miserable place to have to live. I feel sorry for you.

Gina

Agreed, some people thrive on misery it’s unfortunate

Truth First

Even worse, G, are the other people who actually set out to MAKE their fellow man miserable—by blindly supporting the fascists “leaders” who systematically erode the constitution with Communistic mandates that destroy civil rights. You know the ones, the gullibles who are so married to their political party or ideology that they'll believe anything their idols tell them and refuse to use the common sense that God gave them. We're seeing some of that here.

It's best to just ignore these dumbs**ts. True patriots like you and I, we'll defeat them along with the powers who've instigated this unholy litmus test upon us, who must be giggling like little girls right now. They're all saying, "Look at those fools, how easy it is to exploit their fears in order to control them. Suckers."

They won't be laughing for long. Those criminals have got some leg irons and orange jumpsuits in their future. I'm lookin' at Fauci, Gates, Schwab, the entire royal family...all the pedophiles. They're gonna pay dearly, just like all the criminal growers that are stinking up our region. Can't wait for their comeuppance...

Trinity Bob

I hope that some day you can find at least a little bit of joy in that angry, miserable world of yours, TF.

Smile! The world can be a happy place, and you don't have to wait.

Truth First

So very heartening to see the tens-of-thousands of public service employees across the nation coming out against the mandates. These are true patriots. And, they and the rest of the working class are opposing the left in droves, as evidenced by the Nov. 2 elections results from back east. Of course, the liars are trying to paint the protesters as spreaders of the Fauci Virus, when we critical thinkers know the truth and aren't about to give the true culprits, the Great Reset a-holes, any quarter. Their time is due. So...very...heartening.

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